Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Iran's Hand In Iraq

Yesterday's Pentagon press conference finally corroborates what most officials have been suspecting for a while about arms coming over the border from Iran. However, I think it's semantically misleading when officials use the term "Iran", because everyone immediately assumes Iran's government has something to do with it. I'm guessing that this particular materiel is coming from extremist groups within Iran and not sanctioned by the government itself. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution that dominates the Iraq government right now is more or less an ideological/religious extension of Iran, (Sistani himself is Iranian by birth) so it makes little sense for the Iranian government to be undermining the very Iraqi government that could more of less secure their future economic/military interests.

This is also a possiblity though - the Iranian government is simply "looking the other way" while some of these bombs cross their borders because a weakened, but not utterly defeated, U.S. army in Iraq serves their particular self interest. It IS possible for Iran to simultaneously support the Iraqi government and undermine the U.S. military presence.

This is all assuming of course that this bomb making material was intended for the "insurgents". Since we've utterly failed to provide Iraq with anything approaching security, many local militias are taking it upon themselves to counter the insurgency, so this stuff could have been intended for one of these local militias as well. (btw, I think one of the misconceptions perpetuated by the American media/government establishment is that this "insurgency" is a shadowy united front of Jihadis/Baathists coordinating all attacks their together. While this is probably the most widespread and lethal facet of the insurgency, many of the attacks are also perpetrated by groups of people or individuals who are simply angry with the United States for a number of reasons - remember that back in April of '04, our main enemy on the battlefield was Moqtada al-Sadr and Co. holed up in the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf. You're telling me that none of them want retribution for A. their friends getting killed last year, or B. the U.S. abandoning the Shiites in '91 after exhorting them to rise up against Saddam, resulting in another classic "Saddam kills everyone" massacre?)

Personally, I think we're fucked. No one really gives damn about democracy when you don't have power or water or a job, and and the only thing distracting you from the bullets whizzing by your head are the giant car bombs going off down the street. I'm guessing it'll probably be a "declare victory and leave" situation that comes back to haunt us in 25 years.

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